How Not to Be Wrong : The Power of Mathematical Thinking
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- skarlawnsfez uma citaçãohá 3 anos
judging a decade’s worth of mutual funds by the ones that still exist at the end of the ten years is like judging our pilots’ evasive maneuvers by counting the bullet holes in the planes that come back. - skarlawnsfez uma citaçãohá 3 anosthere’s no reason at all to expect the planes to have an equal likelihood of survival no matter where they get hit.
for example, in covid patients admitted to hospital with common shared symptoms, does it mean said symptoms were the most lethal?
- skarlawnsfez uma citaçãohá 3 anos“What assumptions are you making? And are they justified?”
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